SPACE by krndby

The Meta Attribution Gap: What Happens When Pixels Don’t Match Reality

Jul 21, 2025

Your pixel isn’t lying.
But it might be misleading you.

In our last launch, Meta reported 114 conversions.
Our checkout backend—Thrivecart—showed only 55.

That’s not a small discrepancy. That’s a problem.

Where It Broke:

🌐 What Meta Tracked:

  • Pixel fired on every conversion event

  • Rebill payments triggered the same purchase event

  • Result: inflated conversion count

📊 What Thrivecart Tracked:

  • First-time payments separated from rebills

  • Unique customer IDs tied to each purchase

  • Result: clean, trustworthy attribution

Why It Matters

When your pixel counts rebills as new purchases:

  • Your ROAS looks inflated

  • Your funnel seems healthier than it is

  • Your CAC calculations fall apart

You're not optimizing performance—you’re optimizing fiction.

What We Did

  • Built a custom conversion for first-time subscription purchases

  • Set Thrivecart as our source of truth for real revenue and new customer data

  • Created new attribution dashboards to exclude rebills and show clean CAC

The Takeaway

Pixels are great. But they don’t understand your billing logic.
Especially with subscriptions or rebillable high-ticket offers, you need more than surface-level data.

If your backend and ad platform aren't speaking the same language, you're scaling on shaky ground.

Validate. Align. Clean your data.
Because what gets reported drives what gets optimized.
And what gets optimized—better be real.